Elias H. Tuma
It may be shrewd and strategic to wait when there is a fairly good
chance that the desired objective will be realized within a reasonable time
horizon. But it is futile, wasteful, and self-defeating to wait for
something to happen when all odds in the foreseeable future are against it.
In that case it becomes necessary to devise new approaches that promise
to be more viable than endless waiting. The Palestinians are in that
predicament at this time. They have been waiting for a just and permanent
peace with Israel for a long time, but it has not come and is unlikely to
come any time soon, unless the Palestinians take matters into their own
hands in a more creative way than has been the case. It is up to them to
initiate and propose solutions that Israel cannot reject, even if such
solutions entail serious compromises on their part.
The Palestinians have been waiting apparently on the assumption or the
hope that other concerned parties will see the light, recognize their just
cause, and come to their aid and salvation. Thus, they have been busy
reminding themselves and others of their just cause, and also reinforcing
their beliefs with violence against an opponent that is superior in
training, equipment, unity, and discipline. Several decades have passed but
the prospects of peace on their terms are no better today than they were
then. That is why the Palestinians should take the initiative and come up
with peace proposals that reconcile terms of their own with terms acceptable
to Israel.
The Palestinians must be aware that Arab countries, presumably their
closest allies and benefactors, can or will help only in rhetoric and with
modest funds to help them survive, but not much more. Arab countries will
not again take up arms against Israel; they have little leverage to pressure
the major supporters of Israel; and they have little clout to influence the
United Nations Security Council to take a defining and enforceable stand on
their behalf. Arab countries are now planning another summit for next month
to consider the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but if history tells anything,
it is that the Palestinians should not expect much.
The Palestinians must know that the United States (U.S.) is totally
committed to the cause of Israel, as Israel defines it. The U.S., therefore,
will not apply sufficient pressure on Israel on their behalf, nor will it
help them become economically or militarily strong enough to fend for
themselves against Israel. The U.S. will help only within the context of
Israel's guaranteed, secure future, regardless of the infringement by Israel
on their human rights, their increasing poverty, or the decline in the
quality of life of the majority among them.
The Palestinians must know that the European countries, singly or
collectively, are not any more dependable allies than the U.S. in the
conflict with Israel. The European Union makes declarations but takes no
action. The individual European countries, such as Britain, France, Germany,
or Russia, may criticize certain Israeli policies but stand by their
commitment to the triumph of Israel. Hence, waiting for effective support
from the U.S. or Europe is like waiting for Manna from Heaven: it makes one
feel good but the stomach remains empty.
The United Nations (UN) is probably the best candidate to appreciate the
plight of the Palestinians, the elements of justice in their claims against
Israel, and the magnitude of their suffering. Yet, the UN is handicapped.
It is only a collection of the individual members and it can do only what
its members decide. Its hands are tied especially by the distribution of
veto power in the Security Council, which the U.S. is always ready to cast
on behalf of Israel. Thus, even the UN can influence the relations between
the Palestinians and Israel only by persuasion, which has so far not been
sufficiently effective.
The Palestinians must know that Israel will not come to their aid and
surrender its claims to territory, which is the crux of the conflict, on its
own. Israel acts in its own self-interest. It wants as much territory as it
can secure. It wants as few returning Palestinians as absolutely possible.
It also wants to maximize security for its people. So far Israel has
succeeded in attaining most of these objectives at the expense of the
Palestinians, by force, and by guaranteed outside support. Israel also has
the power to maintain its upper hand for the foreseeable future. It has a
well-trained, well-equipped army. It has some of the most advanced weapons,
and the knowledge to produce and utilize these weapons. It has the human and
physical capital it needs. It also has the knowledge and the organization to
promote its cause worldwide. Given all these advantages, Israel finds itself
under no compulsion to give the Palestinians what they want, especially when
it finds "legitimate" excuses not to do so. The Palestinians always tend to
oblige and provide the excuses, legitimate or not.
The Palestinians, in contrast, have little hope of winning by force: they
have poorly trained militias, disorganized resistance groups, and defective
or out of date equipment. Their economy is in shambles; unemployment is
extremely high; poverty and malnutrition are rampant. They have no super
power allies, and their apparently powerless government lacks credibility at
home and abroad. Therefore, the Palestinians have little to utilize in
pressuring Israel to make peace with them on their own terms.
In the meantime violence and counter-violence have caused them heavy
losses in life and limb and have hardened the Israeli and international
stands against them. The strategy of violence against the occupation has
failed.
Therefore, the longer they "wait" on the basis of false hopes and
expectations, the better it is for Israel and the worse for them. The
waiting strategy gives Israel more opportunities to occupy more land, build
more settlements and establish more facts on the ground, and become more
entrenched than ever before. In fact Israel has been proficient in
encouraging this waiting strategy by inventing ways to preoccupy the
Palestinians and distract them from the basic issues in the conflict. The
Palestinians are now preoccupied with the Wall Israel is building, even
though the wall is not a basic issue. Fighting the wall helps to delay
negotiations and gives Israel more time to pursue its own objectives.
The Palestinians' waiting is entailing heavy costs on them: loss of life,
injury, destruction of infrastructure, crumbling economy, severe poverty and
unemployment, and a high degree of dependence on aid (charity) from the
outside for survival. Malnutrition, stunted growth, and distorted education
also are high costs to bear while waiting for the improbable solution they
desire.
The Palestinians must know that if they cannot get what they want, it is
wise to get what they can. Israel does not hold all the cards. Therefore the
Palestinians can and should take matters more into their hands. They can
take a number of steps to improve the odds in their favour. First and
foremost, they can and should stop the violence, without stopping their
resistance to occupation. Non-violent resistance can be much more effective
than violent resistance, especially in gaining international support, and in
sparing their own people the tragic effects of "counter-violence". The
Palestinians can declare formally what has been internally recognized and
accepted, namely that the return of the Palestinian refugees to Israel is
improbable and should not stand in the way of peace. The Palestinians can
show that they are willing to live in peace side by side with Israel within
borders negotiated by the two of them. The Palestinians can also redirect
their resources and energies to the development of their economy,
improvement of the quality of their education, and the fight against poverty
and deprivation by all the legitimate means at their disposal.
Finally, they can formulate their own comprehensive solution in a way
that will make it hard for Israel to reject it.
The Palestinian's long wait has been detrimental. It is time to end it
and expedite the march toward a viable solution. The Palestinians are
capable of taking the initiative, rather than always reacting to initiatives
by others, in a realistic way that reconciles their claims with those of
Israel. The Palestinians have had many opportunities to reach a solution,
but they have usually said NO until it became too late to say YES, going
back all the way to the 1920s and 1930s. May be now they will have the
courage, the wisdom, and the compassion for their own people to make it
possible for themselves and for the Israelis to say YES to a viable solution
of their own making.
