Renewing the Syrian-Israeli negotiations track can be a positive
development for the Middle East peace process in general; including for the
Palestinian-Israeli track. From experience in the different stages of the peace
process, it has been clearly shown that moving ahead on one track and leaving
the other behind always creates instability and motives for obstruction. While
there are indeed different components of the conflict, the various tracks are
closely inter-related. One must recognize the two common denominators in all
tracks: Israel is a party to both and the Palestinian problem is the root of the
entire conflict.
The standard questions raised about the possible effects on the Palestinian
track which consistently follow any news of “renewing” efforts on the Syrian
track, are irrelevant this time around. The reason is very simple and straight
forward: there are no Israeli-Palestinian political negotiations to be affected,
negatively or otherwise. Moreover, Moreover, there is no hope of reanimating one
as long as Israeli Prime Minister Minister Ariel Sharon and his extremist
coalition are still in power.
Having said that, it can be added that the Syrian track lacks both the
dynamics and the urgency for moving forward. With the situation static, the
different parties are able to live with the status quo with little cost to be
paid by them if the conflict is not solved. Syria is not under occupation and
Israel is not under fire. The only aspect that “spices things up” is Lebanon but
even Hezbollah is gradually concentrating on exclusively Lebanese priorities.
Another important reason why it is difficult to be optimistic is that all
this appears to be happening for purely tactical reasons. It is just maneuver.
The Israeli government is trying to compensate for its failure in making any
progress on the Palestinian track. At an ever-quickening pace, the current
Israeli administration is solidifying its reputation as an anti-peace ruling
coalition.
The Syrians, on the other hand, are convinced that making peace with this
Israeli government is a hopeless case. They are however using the appearance of
being a partner in the peace process as one of the main mechanisms to diffuse
current American pressure even though this pressure emanates from different
areas.
Since international legality is the common aspect in all components of the
Middle East conflict, a multiple negotiation process that is about making peace
by adhering to international legitimacy and implementing relevant UN Security
Council resolutions is the only way for a comprehensive and lasting peace. The
recipe for this is the Saudi--and later Arab--initiative which offers Israel
lasting, collective, and comprehensive peace, in return for a complete
withdrawal. For this to happen there needs to be a change in the composition of
the Israeli government and a strong role for representatives of the
international community (such as the Quartet). Right now, both of these are
absent.
- Published 16/2/2004 © bitterlemons.org