bitterlemons-international.org
Middle East Roundtable /
Edition 36-2008
A Palestinian View:
Oslo's failure led to the rise of Hamas
by Ghassan Khatib
The Oslo negotiations, which were conducted
secretly in Norway in parallel to the official negotiations in Washington,
led to the first ever agreement between Israel and the Palestinian
leadership. Yet Oslo cannot be analyzed as an agreement but rather must be
seen as a process that includes five agreements, their implementation and
the complex relations and new realities created.
At the time, the majority of Palestinians perceived the Declaration of
Principles (DOP), which was signed in Washington in 1993, positively. This
was first and foremost because it involved recognition of the PLO as the
representative of the Palestinian people and promised the return of the PLO
leadership to the occupied Palestinian territories to establish the first
Palestinian authority.
Second, the DOP was perceived by the Palestinian as a transitional stage
toward ending the occupation. It stipulated three phases of Israeli army
redeployment from all occupied territory except Jerusalem and the
settlements, which were to be negotiated together with the refugee issue
after three years. Palestinians also saw the fact that Israel recognized
Jerusalem and refugees as negotiable issues as an achievement.
But the overwhelming public support for Oslo and the Palestinian leadership
that negotiated and signed the agreement did not last long. Soon public
opinion polls and other indicators began to show a downward curve in the
enthusiasm for both. There were many obvious reasons.
A process that was supposed to be about ending the occupation could not even
hide the signs showing that, on the contrary, the occupation was being
consolidated. The Israeli insistence on continuing to confiscate Palestinian
land and expanding illegal Jewish settlements, under both Labor and
Likud-led governments, doubling the number of settlers in the occupied
territories, left the Palestinian public and leadership with strong and
growing doubts about Oslo.
Meanwhile, the failure of the process to curb the practices of the
occupation came in parallel to a poor record of governance by the
Palestinian Authority. And along with its poor governance, the way Oslo left
the Palestinian leadership economically, administratively and structurally
dependent on Israel had a huge effect on domestic politics. These two
factors had a particularly negative impact on the support for those who were
responsible for the process.
This provided an opportunity that was grasped by the main opposition group,
Hamas, who intensified its military attacks against Israelis and its
political attacks against the Palestinian leadership. The final outcome was
a terminal decline in support for the Oslo process and the leadership behind
it. This ultimately led to the radicalization of the public and a shift in
the balance of power that culminated in the victory of Hamas in the 2006
elections.
It is true that in the course of the implementation of the Oslo agreement,
Israel managed to have its cake and eat it at the same time: it reaped the
dividends of peace--improving its international image, normalizing relations
with the region to some extent and improve its security--while not rolling
back its occupation. It might also be true that Israel managed to co-opt the
Palestinian leadership and make it completely dependent on Israel. But this
Israeli strategy has backfired since it has only led to the empowerment of
Hamas and the discrediting of any moderate Palestinian leadership.-
Published 15/9/2008 © bitterlemons.org
Ghassan Khatib is coeditor of the bitterlemons family of internet
publications. He is vice-president of Birzeit University and a former
Palestinian Authority minister of planning. He holds a PhD in Middle East
politics from the University of Durham.
Yossi Alpher is coeditor of the bitterlemons family of
internet publications. He is former director of the Jaffee Center for
Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University.
Bitterlemons-international.org is an internet
forum for an array of world perspectives on the Middle East and its
specific concerns. It aspires to engender greater understanding about
the Middle East region and open a new common space for world thinkers
and political leaders to present their viewpoints and initiatives on the
region. Editors Ghassan Khatib and Yossi Alpher can be reached at
ghassan@bitterlemons-international.org
and
yossi@bitterlemons-international.org, respectively.
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17-09-2008 |