bitterlemons-international.org
Middle East Roundtable /
Edition 4
An Israeli View:
Ceasefire - An impressive beginning
by Yossi Alpher
In case we needed a reminder of the devastatingly negative effect the
late Yasser Arafat had on the prospects for peaceful coexistence between
Israelis and Palestinians, Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) is providing
it. In scarcely days he has negotiated a ceasefire with Palestinian
militants and begun redeploying Palestinian security forces to maintain the
quiet. Security coordination with the Sharon government has been
reestablished, and the two sides are poised to begin discussing additional
confidence-building measures such as prisoner release and Israeli
withdrawals from West Bank cities. Nothing has changed but the Palestinian
leadership.
Where do we go from here? The ceasefire--both among the Palestinian forces
and between them and the Israel Defense Forces--is still very young and
incomplete. Only the passage of time will tell us whether it is genuine, and
in particular, whether Abbas' control over his own security forces is
sufficient. Beyond the obvious need for patience and good will on the part
of both sides, there arises an additional requirement to translate the
ceasefire into a new political process.
Here we return to the roadmap. Both Palestinians and Israelis, as well as
the international community represented by the Quartet, continue to address
the roadmap as the desired political frame of reference. A comprehensive
assessment of the ongoing relevance of the roadmap after years of bitter
fighting and far-reaching local and regional strategic developments is
beyond the scope of this article. But because we are ostensibly back in
phase I of the roadmap, it is vital that we take note now of both parties'
obvious limitations.
Abu Mazen has made it absolutely clear that he has no intention of
collecting illegal weapons and "dismantling the terrorist infrastructure",
as phase I demands. Rather, he seeks to co-opt the militants into the
existing Palestinian political and even police/military infrastructure. From
the internal Palestinian standpoint the ceasefire is intended to provide
breathing space for cooptation negotiations to take place and to succeed. PM
Ariel Sharon for his part has found it impossible to "immediately dismantle
settlement outposts erected since March 2001". Essentially, he wants his
intended dismantling of 21 settlements in Gaza and the northern West Bank to
be recognized as a viable substitute process. Nor does he intend to reopen
PLO institutions in East Jerusalem as phase I requires. Finally the Quartet,
which was supposed to monitor the ceasefire, has thus far been caught off
guard by developments; conceivably the US will soon begin to fill this role.
So both Israel and the PA are going to have to be flexible with their
roadmap phase I demands if this ceasefire is to lead to a political process
of some sort. In particular, Israel is going to have to agree to forego the
forcible dismantling of the terrorist infrastructure and give Abu Mazen a
chance to integrate Hamas and the Fateh dissidents into the Fateh-dominated
PA political establishment, as he advocates. Is this a more effective
vehicle for facilitating eventual coexistence between Israel and a
Palestinian state? The test will be whether this permanently ends
Palestinian terrorism, bearing in mind that the total destruction of Hamas
has proven a near impossible task for Israel, let alone the PA.
We demanded of Arafat that he end the violence by force of arms. This made
sense, insofar as Arafat himself symbolized Palestinian violence. But we owe
it to ourselves to give Abu Mazen's way, which is diametrically opposed to
Arafat's strategy of violence, a decent chance.-Published 31/1/2005 (c)
bitterlemons.org Yossi Alpher is
coeditor of bitterlemons.org and bitterlemons-international.org. He is
former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies and a former
senior adviser to PM Ehud Barak.
Bitterlemons-international.org is an internet
forum for an array of world perspectives on the Middle East and its
specific concerns. It aspires to engender greater understanding about
the Middle East region and open a new common space for world thinkers
and political leaders to present their viewpoints and initiatives on the
region. Editors Ghassan Khatib and Yossi Alpher can be reached at
ghassan@bitterlemons-international.org
and
yossi@bitterlemons-international.org, respectively.
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04-02-2004 |