Unilateral detachment from Gaza:
In a Small Piece…
Gershon Baskin
In a small piece, only one paragraph long, on an inner page of the
March 4th edition of the Ha’aretz newspaper, it was stated that the
Governments of Israel and the United States were evaluating whether or not
the Israeli unilateral detachment from Gaza could bring about a Palestinian
leadership change. In his speech from June 24, 2002, President Bush said: “I
call on the Palestinian people to elect new leaders, leaders not compromised
by terror”. But I don’t think that this piece of news was referring to some
new decision to hold free and democratic elections in Palestine.
In Israel, more and more security officials and politicians are speaking
quietly about the possible take over of Gaza by the former Head of
Palestinian Preventive Security Forces Mohammad Dahlan. Dahlan is referred
to as the “strong man of Gaza”. Many people suggest that Dahlan and his
supporters may have been behind the latest killing of an Arafat ally in Gaza
this last week. Several weeks ago there was a shooting incident at the
headquarters of the Palestinian police in Gaza where, people say, there was
an attempt to kill the head of the Police
– Ghazi Jabali. Many
people suggest that Dahlan and his supporters may have been behind that
incident as well.
Last week it was reported that Dahlan and Arafat held a reconciliation
meeting between them after many months of not speaking. Some analysts have
written that this reconciliation between the two is part of a renewed
alliance aimed at pre-empting any possible revolt by Dahlan and his
supporters against Arafat in a Gaza disengagement move by Israel. At the
same time, Dahlan was firmly behind and in support of new democracy
challenges within in the ranks of Fatah at the meetings last week of the
Fatah Revolutionary Council in Ramallah. It has been reported that Arafat
caved in to the demands for new elections in Fatah and has promised them
within a year, although most people do not believe that they will be held.
How do we piece all of this news together? It is always difficult to
understand internal Palestinian politics. But there are a few truths or
axioms that seem to hold real to the test of time:
- 1. As long as Arafat is alive and is functioning, there will be no
real challenge to his leadership.
- 2. Israel has tried many times to create an alternative leadership to
the PLO and to Arafat but has always failed. This time will be no
different.
- 3. Mohammad Dahlan will not go against Arafat and “take over” Gaza on
behalf of the Americans or the Israelis. Dahlan will not “cut” a
separate deal with Israel that will further isolate Arafat and leave the
West Bank out of the process. There will be no “Dahlanistan” in Gaza.
The Israeli proposal for disengagement from Gaza is not a bad idea. If
the disengagement includes a full withdrawal from all settlements this
should be supported. If it also includes a new security arrangement with
Egypt so that the Philadelphi Road running on the Egypt-Gaza border is
controlled by the Egyptian army instead of Israel and the Egyptians are
willing to do their utmost (which they know well to do) in order to prevent
the smuggling of weapons, then it is even better. But one thing is clear,
without suitable arrangements for some kind of governance inside of Gaza and
some form of reasonable enforcers of law and order, the people of Gaza will
die of starvation and the streets, towns, villages and refugee camps will
run rampant with gangs of wild uncontrollable militia and violence. In the
end the Islamic forces will take over.
Gaza is fully dependent on its few exit and entry points to Egypt and to
Israel. If these points of passage are closed, the economy of Gaza dies.
Last year’s economic figures for Gaza show clearly a drop of some 80% in
imports and exports when the Karni transportation zone was closed by Israel
due to Palestinian gun fire in the area. Gaza has no sea port. Its airport
has been closed since the beginning of the Intifada. There is a passage for
workers into Israel in the north and into the Erez industrial zone. There is
a passage at Karni for goods to move in both directions
– into and out of
Gaza from Israel. There is a passage further south for building aggregates
and fuel and there is the international border crossing to Egypt.
At the present time Israel controls all of the passages. In the present
situation, Gaza is strangled by the lack of ability to move sufficient
amounts of goods in and out. Today there is a real need for expanding
existing facilities and even allowing competition to them in order to bring
prices down and to allow for greater movement. There are real plans being
drawn up in the Ministry of Defence in Israel, in the Office of the
Coordinator, to support such ideas. But these plans are being drawn up at
the same time that other planners in the army and in the National Security
Council in the Prime Minister’s Office are creating that are aimed at
closing Gaza off completely from Israel. There is little doubt that there
will be a direct correlation between the level of chaos in Gaza and the
extent to which Gaza will be completely closed off to the world by Israel.
According to reports in Israel, Sharon’s disengagement plan will take
some two years to implement. Now is the time to begin planning for what kind
of administration will exist in Gaza. Israel recognizes that there is a need
for some kind of international presence or involvement. This, however, goes
strongly against the traditional Israeli position rejecting the possible
internationalization of the conflict. There are more and more voices in
Israel speaking softly, but firmly, about the need for foreign troops on the
ground in Gaza. Israel clearly speaks about US troops. Some Palestinians
speak about a UN led force of “blue helmets”. Israel will certainly reject
any UN led presence. The US is probably too bogged down in Iraq and too
close to elections to even suggest the idea of more US forces being sent to
the Middle East.
There is another possibility –
NATO. NATO is searching for a role and an identity since the end of the Cold
War. NATO should begin to see its role as an effective peace keeping force
with wide responsibilities for working with civilian governments and
administrations for limited periods of transition. NATO led forces would be
trusted by Israel and by Washington.
In planning for some kind of international presence, it is essential that
any introduction of any foreign international forces be linked to a clear
and well planned exit strategy. The Palestinian people must understand and
know that the Israeli occupation is not being replaced by a NATO or some
other occupation. This must be a transitional administration that leads to
democratic Palestinian rule in Gaza. The NATO forces would have to take
control of the Palestinian side of the crossing points. They would have to
ensure that there is no smuggling of weapons across those borders.
Effective NATO presence would allow for the completion of the
construction of the Gaza seaport and the reopening of the Gaza International
Airport.
Only this kind of international presence would allow for economic
openness between Gaza and Israel and between Gaza and Egypt
– without this Gaza
dies.
The successful transition in Gaza must also be linked to Israeli
withdrawals and redeployments in the West Bank and NATO presence could be
useful there as well, even if more complicated. The main thing is to get the
process moving in the right direction by planning for it now in parallel
with any Israeli planning for disengagement and redeployment. The US-Israeli
talks on Israeli disengagement should be coupled with US-Palestinian talks
on how the Palestinian Authority should plan for the transition. NATO should
also launch a series of talks with the parties and with the US on its
possible role in a transitional administration.
NATO would not replace Israeli presence on the Israeli side of the
border.
The Israelis would still regulate and determine what and who enters its
sovereign territory. Israel would still control its borders and would work
closely with the NATO forces command in sharing of intelligence information
and in other administrative and technical tasks.
A plan for Palestinian elections must be included and should be held
shortly after Israeli withdrawal from Gaza is completed. People like
Mohammad Dahlan and many others can compete in those elections for the
public’s support, but he, nor anyone else should be imposed on the
Palestinian people by outside meddlers.
One real question of many remains open
– will Sharon
disengage from Gaza before the Knesset disengages from him?
Dr. Gershon Baskin is the Israeli Co-Director of IPCRI, the
Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information. Source: IPCRI, March
4, 2004,
ipcri.org
Israel - Palestine:
It's Time to
Internationalize the Solution
Discussing past failed attempts by Israelis and
Palestinians to partition, A. Benn states that “in light of the failed
performances by the sides, which have prevented its [partition] execution,
it is worth considering the alternative of internationalization:
expropriating the authority to determine the borders and security
arrangements from the Israelis and Palestinians and giving the authority to
the superpowers, led by the U.S.” (Source: Ha’aretz, March 4, 2004)
Silent - no longer:
Call It Enlightened Self-Interest
OneVoice founder and President Daniel Lubetzky
discusses the OneVoice fast growing campaign whose mission is “to isolate
the forces of terrorism and violent absolutism […] by giving the
overwhelming but heretofore silent majority of Israelis and Palestinians the
opportunity to have their voices heard and seize back the agenda from the
minority that creates and sustains the current intractable situation.”
(Source: Jerusalem Post, February 17, 2004)
The Geneva Accord Series VII/VIII:
Penetrating the
Stagnation
Even those who oppose the Geneva Accord in the Palestinian and Arab mass
media, for whom Arab satellite channels open their arms and screens, cannot
deny that the initiative has stirred the stagnant waters in the lake of a
frozen peace, since the extremists and hardliners from both the Palestinian
and Israeli sides took matters into their own hands.
The Geneva Accord Series
VIII/VIII:
Hope and Glory - Geneva
In this last article of the Geneva Accord series,
former speaker of Israel's Knesset Avraham Burg presents the reason for the
collapse of the previous peace initiative - Oslo, including the conclusions
that are required for the rescue and success of the next attempt - Geneva.
(Source: CGNews, March 5, 2004) |