It Takes Three to Tango [Zur
Notwendigkeit einer internationalen Intervention]
Akiva Eldar, Ha’aretz, 18 August
2003
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To save us and the Palestinians from distress when the
next terrorist attack sends the Israel Defense Forces back to Ramallah, it
is worth looking at the opening sentence of the road map - "a two-state
solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be achieved only through
an end to violence and terrorism."
How many Palestinians believe that an end to violence will in fact lead them
to independence? How many Israelis believe that a two-state solution will
bring an end to the conflict? The affair of the prisoner releases
demonstrates the width of the credibility gap between both sides during the
first faltering steps of the map, and which threatens its failure. What one
side considers a generous gesture, the other side sees as a ploy to
humiliate it.
Without a belief that it will lead to an end of the occupation (rather than
to a Bantustan) - Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas has no
motivation to risk a frontal clash with Hamas. So long as his public
suspects that the Oslo Accords were a plot to destroy Israel, Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon will not pay the political price of a clash with the settlers.
Each side's avoidance of fulfilling its commitments encourages the other
side to follow suit. Thus the two adversaries are pushed into a never ending
game of mudslinging at the enemy until the enemy buries another political
initiative underneath it and deepens the credibility gap even further.
Lieutenant Colonel (res.) Kobi Michael, one of those who established the
security coordination and liaison apparatus between Israel and the PA and
was in charge of it, claims that a lack of confidence, in addition to
cultural and structural differences, doomed the joint patrols to failure.
One of the conclusions he spells out in a memo he wrote for the Leonard
Davis Institute for International Relations at the Hebrew University in
Jerusalem, is that it is imperative to involve a third party, agreed upon by
both sides. The role of the third party will be to bridge the credibility
gap between Israelis and Palestinians, and even to solve differences of
opinion that the two sides have not succeeded in solving by themselves.
The importance of such a body is illustrated by the Water Commission, the
only one of 26 Israeli-Palestinian commissions that never stopped
operations. It is also the only forum headed and administered by an American
representative.
Michael was also a member of the Israeli-Palestinian think tank sponsored by
the Israeli-Palestinian Center for Research and Information [IPCRI], which
prepared a detailed plan for third-party assistance in the implementation of
stage one of the road map. The plan suggests establishing an international
force numbering 250-350 people, which will accompany local bodies, from the
district level up to the general staff, in coordination, monitoring and
guidance.
This force will assist in collecting weapons, dismantling illegal outposts
and restraining incitement. It will monitor the checkpoints and
international transit points, and will keep track of the steps being taken
by Arab countries to end the funding of terrorist organizations. In some
tasks, Egypt and the European Union will join the United States.
The participation of all the parties in a trilateral apparatus, which has
defined tasks and which will be equipped with carrots and sticks, is
supposed to turn them, too, into interested parties eager to promote its
success.
The idea is not foreign to the United States - the third party most
identified with the road map. It appears in the Tenet plan of June 2001. CIA
chief George Tenet then recommended the established of a permanent
trilateral apparatus composed of senior security officials from Israel, the
PA and the United States. According to the plan, the three groups are
supposed to meet at least once a week, and to receive current information
about the planning of attacks, about the movement of suspects and about the
steps taken to prevent attacks.
The passivity of the American team headed by John Wolf, which was sent to
monitor the implementation of the road map, is totally different from the
recommendations of the Tenet report, which is mentioned as the basis for the
security aspect of the map. The relatively junior diplomat (rather than a
senior security official), was authorized to observe the sides and to give
them grades - red, yellow, green. His bosses are also keeping their
distance.
Here President Bush gives a wrist-slapping over the separation fence; there
Secretary of State Colin Powell balances it with a comment regarding the
fight against terror. As long as this is the example they are giving for the
implementation of the road map, we have to pray for the good health of the
hudna.
From the Common Ground News Service
hagalil.com 10-09-2003
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